The New Mexico Clean Transportation Fuel Program (20.2.92 NMAC) (CTFP) requires the impartial preparation of a transportation fuel supply forecast to be annually arranged for the following calendar year, as set forth in Paragraph (1) of Subsection D of 20.2.92.601 NMAC. This forecast report summarizes the transportation fuel supply forecast for calendar year 2027. As set forth by the Paragraph (1) of Subsection D of 20.2.92.601 NMAC, this report considers the New Mexico State Road Fund revenue forecast, as well as other national historical and forecast data in preparing the supply forecast. This forecast is prepared prior to the release of CTFP quarterly fuel reporting data for the first activity quarter of April-June 2026. Therefore, this forecast report provides relatively greater weight to data and trends from other states with CTFP-like programs (namely, Oregon, Washington, and California) to illustrate the adoption curves of lower carbon intensity fuel sources, the average realized carbon intensity of fuels, and other similar data. This report summarizes the forecast results and methodology for the 2027 forecast. Subsequent forecasts are anticipated to rely on New Mexico published data, which will require a change in methodology.
This report will:
- Develop a demand forecast for gasoline, gasoline alternatives, diesel, diesel alternatives (primarily biodiesel and renewable diesel), electricity, and other gaseous fuels including natural gas, liquified petroleum gas, and renewable natural gas.
- Determine the availability of fuels to meet New Mexico’s demand.
- Develop a net credit generation forecast from supplying these fuels.
- Estimate total banked credits and deficits at the beginning of the compliance period.
- Estimate the necessary number of credits to meet CTFP requirements during the compliance period.
This report also states key assumptions and drivers of uncertainty in the calculations and analysis and potential impacts or implications of changing assumptions on key findings.